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Iran-US Ceasefire Negotiations & War Risk Premium: Stalemate & Ongoing Tensions (Likely Base Case)
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.18 Neutral$81,254
Iran-US Ceasefire Negotiations & War Risk Premium: Rapid De-escalation & Ceasefire Agreement (Next 48-72h)
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.48 Bullish$81,359
Daily BTC Outlook — May 11, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.29 Bullish$80,714
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Stalemate & Frozen Tensions
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.14 Neutral$81,518
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Diplomatic Breakthrough & Ceasefire
·Geopolitical
Scenario-0.06 Neutral$81,547
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Military Escalation & Strait Blockade
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.15 Neutral$81,629
Daily BTC Outlook — May 10, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.28 Bullish$80,717
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: Stalemate: Frozen Conflict, Elevated Risk Premium
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.20 Bullish$80,592
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: De-escalation: Putin's Ukraine Peace Signals Broader Détente
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.43 Bullish$80,611
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: Escalation: Regional Conflict Spreads, Oil Shock
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.08 Neutral$80,581
Daily BTC Outlook — May 9, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.15 Neutral$80,217
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Major Escalation / Broad Regional Conflict
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.02 Neutral$80,387
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Contained Military Standoff / Tit-for-Tat Strikes
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.18 Neutral$80,321
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Rapid De-escalation / Diplomatic Breakthrough
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.57 Bullish$80,270
Daily BTC Outlook — May 8, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.25 Bullish$79,655
US-Iran Escalation & Oil Market Volatility: Military Escalation & Strait Closure
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.28 Bullish$79,722
US-Iran Escalation & Oil Market Volatility: Stalemate & Prolonged Tension
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.20 Bullish$79,769
US-Iran Escalation & Oil Market Volatility: De-Escalation & Diplomatic Breakthrough
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.24 Bullish$79,706
Daily BTC Outlook — May 7, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.44 Bullish$81,580
Iran-US Geopolitical De-escalation vs. Conflict Intensification: Frozen Stalemate & Uncertainty Prolongation
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.30 Bullish$80,962
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