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Oil Supply Shock & Stagflation Repricing: Supply Constraint Persists / Oil Holds $100+
·Economic Data
Scenario+0.42 Bullish$71,930
US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline & Energy Market Stabilization: Escalation / Limited Military Strike
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.55 Bullish$71,857
US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline & Energy Market Stabilization: Deadline Extension + Prolonged Uncertainty
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.48 Bullish$71,946
US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline & Energy Market Stabilization: Rapid Diplomatic Deal / Hormuz Strait Reopens
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.52 Bullish$71,975
Daily BTC Outlook — April 7, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.28 Bullish$68,641
Stablecoin Infrastructure Shift & Regulatory Clarity: Regulatory Crackdown on Stablecoins Accelerates
·Regulatory
Scenario+0.28 Bullish$68,778
Stablecoin Infrastructure Shift & Regulatory Clarity: Regulatory Green Light for Native Stablecoins
·Regulatory
Scenario+0.33 Bullish$68,775
AI Chip Demand Boom & Computing Infrastructure Repricing: Chip Prices Moderate, Equilibrium Re-establishes
·Crypto Structural
Scenario+0.42 Bullish$68,563
AI Chip Demand Boom & Computing Infrastructure Repricing: Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI Infrastructure Providers
·Crypto Structural
Scenario+0.26 Bullish$68,716
AI Chip Demand Boom & Computing Infrastructure Repricing: Bitcoin Mining Margin Compression from Chip/Energy Scarcity
·Crypto Structural
Scenario+0.16 Neutral$68,833
Oil Supply Shock & Inflation Repricing: Managed Escalation: Prices Remain Elevated, Sustained Volatility
·Economic Data
Scenario+0.10 Neutral$68,750
Oil Supply Shock & Inflation Repricing: Supply Disruptions Contained, Oil Retreats
·Economic Data
Scenario+0.30 Bullish$68,845
Oil Supply Shock & Inflation Repricing: Oil Spike Triggers Inflation Expectations Reset
·Economic Data
Scenario+0.06 Neutral$68,909
Iran Nuclear Deal Deadline & Military Escalation: Ambiguous Stalemate & Continued Tension
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.10 Neutral$68,919
Iran Nuclear Deal Deadline & Military Escalation: Talks Collapse, Military Strike
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.19 Neutral$68,933
Iran Nuclear Deal Deadline & Military Escalation: Deal Reached, De-escalation
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.42 Bullish$68,882
Daily BTC Outlook — April 6, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.02 Neutral$69,071
Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift & Macro Uncertainty: Mixed Signals & Extended Uncertainty in Rate Path
·Monetary Policy
Scenario+0.05 Neutral$68,910
Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift & Macro Uncertainty: Energy Shock Forces Pivot & Unexpected Rate Cut Signaling
·Monetary Policy
Scenario+0.24 Bullish$68,949
Fed Interest Rate Expectations Shift & Macro Uncertainty: Sticky Inflation & Continued Rate Hold Regime
·Monetary Policy
Scenario-0.10 Neutral$69,104
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